Tesla Model 3 Will Dominate the EV Market

Tesla Model 3 Will Dominate the EV Market


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100 thoughts on “Tesla Model 3 Will Dominate the EV Market

  1. I have also wondered if many people will hold out on their M3 for more features, thereby limiting the amount delivered in 2017. I hope that this isn't the case. I am a little happy though, because I didn't learn about Tesla until reading about Elon in his autobiography in the spring of 2016, which led to my Model 3 reservation in June of 2016, which means that I will have more options to choose from when I get my M3 sometime in mid to late 2018.

  2. hey Ben, I was 8th in line in Chicago for my reservation and I'll order whatever version is available at launch to try and get it this year. If I don't receive delivery before dual motor launch I believe that will delay my delivery even more because it's a high demand option and could basically reset my place in line, i.e. everyone in CA that ordered dual motor.

  3. Living in Australia, I think it will take quite a long time for EV's and Tesla's to catch on. The Model 3 should become very popular, but there is very little infrastructure to support the cars.

    And with Australia being such a large country, superchargers and destination chargers are required.

    If I was able to afford one at this point in time, and the infrastructure was in place, then I would be looking to configure the Model 3, and would be willing to wait till I got the car I wanted, with the largest battery, due to living in Australia with the distances between major cities, and AWD and dual motor. And I would be going full enhanced driving from the get go.

  4. I am a day 1 reservation holder and will try to get whatever is available this year….. that said, every time I pass the chevy dealership, that volt looks damn good! I HAVE to take ownership this year for tax reasons…. I hope its the M3 but will be happy with the volt as well…..

  5. Your calculator indicated I would get delivery late November. If so (I'm in Canada) I will take delivery. There's a part of me that hopes the folks in California hold out for more options and my delivery date come sooner LOL

  6. Ben, why do you use "smooth lines"? To me they look too imprecise (and sometimes misleading) since you don't have the data for that interval. Better use straight lines, or simply scattering. Nice analytics you did there, but the charts could look more professional 😉

  7. I'm a reservation holder, but going to wait for dual motor. But not more than two years, don't know if my poor old '92 Chevy truck will last much longer than that!

  8. I have a reservation but I must admit Tesla's used Model S have me thinking of making a purchase before M3. Hard to know since we do not know the cost of the M3 version that will be available first. Add to that your estimate of my delivery date is the summer of 2018!

  9. I'm very happy to wait and get the dual motor car, hopefully any problems will be worked out long before mine is made 🙂

  10. since you're a data junkie: postulate, if you would, the effect that nearly half a million model 3's will have on the price of gas. my rough numbers imply a drop in demand of around a billion litres per year.

  11. I'll be holding off until they offer AWD. But honestly, I'm starting to consider the model Y, and even more so, the pickup truck. If the model Y is as ugly as the model X, I'll probably get the pickup. I've always been an SUV/Truck sort of person.

  12. I think your prediction is reasonable for Tesla's first shot at a larger mass market type production rate on Model 3. The anticipation continues to rise for Model 3. The second half of 2017 is going to be a fun ride. Keep up the great videos Ben.

  13. I plan to get a Model 3. I don't have a reservation yet. I am waiting for it to be released. I am not in a super big hurry, as long as I get one by 2020. I kind of want to know what options and prices, though mainly only want the bigger battery and AP. And the glass roof if it's optional. Well and maybe dual motors though I don't really need them down here in Texas. Why am I waiting? I see no big hurry for me. I want one for when I retire in a couple years and can travel with it. Not worried about the small trunk, as I have a Mustang Convertible and it has a tiny trunk and I get along just fine.

  14. Your numbers estimates make sense, given the data you have. More importantly though is the margin on the cars they make. This is very difficult of course to estimate since it is dependent on proprietary data thus far. The 2018 10K will truly tell the story, but that's a long way out. Oil is in a supply glut right now as is gasoline. Forecast is this will continue for a while, so prices will continue to go down. The psychology of more EVs in the market as Model 3 goes into full production is important given that the market is 60% emotion. If Tesla pulls a zinger and the Model 3 with 2170 batteries goes much farther than the Bolt, it will add in a positive fashion to the psycho-bump. Interesting times.

  15. I heard white won't be an option for the beginning models to roll out so I'm going to wait till that's out and more range is available.

  16. If Tesla really wants to sell 5-10,000 cars a year. Then they need to consolidate first their gains by paying off their vast amount of debts, save a lot of money and look for another automobile factory. I would heavily Detroit. There are a lot of shut down factories that could be used to help them reach their goals. Otherwise they will have to spend a lot more money in building a brand new factory. Maybe Tesla could bargain with the state of Michigan to give them funds to help renovate the now decrepit state of the shut down factories. Although Musk disagrees with Trump on withdrawing from the Paris Climate agreement. Yet I think Trump would more be willing to consider helping Tesla to help expand their operations with more jobs that are created from Tesla.

  17. This site shows who sold how many PEVs each year:
    http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

    You're predicting that model 3, selling only in the last 5 months of 2017, will amount to 40% of all other BEVs (i'm guessing you want to exclude PHEV's), including the Tesla Model S and X?

    Maybe all Tesla models will amount to 40% of 2017 BEVs. I think the model 3 might get 20%, and that means coming late in the game, far behind the pack, and delivering 4-5 model 3 for each model S or X delivered, assuming those sales stay steady for the rest of 2017.

    But first let see when ONE model 3 is delivered into public hands that didn't sign a non-disclosure agreement when they get the car.

  18. i will have to wait many years to get my hand on a used one (my guess is they will be rare) I drive a volt in the meantime and its not bad at all

  19. I am a reservation holder, but will hold out for the bigger battery. It would be nice if they start with that, but we will see. They have said only color and wheel size will be the options to begin with, but as the driving package is a software download, I hope that is also available. I like the way the car looks, but the interior looks a bit stark.

  20. What do you think about Tesla saying people who reserve their model 3 will be able to order within a year from now? I used your Model 3 estimator(and a different website 3-4 months ago) they both say I will receive mine in late Fall next year(sept/oct 2018). I have been already in line for 15 months (april 9th) east coast… How will that be possible for people reserving right now will be getting their car before or slightly after I get mine? Either way I am just super excited to join the Tesla family and getting anxious as I have never once ordered a vehicle in advance lol.

  21. Your estimator pegs my delivery in mid-October '17 while I've been expecting a November '17 delivery date since the evening of the reveal also revealed so many reservations. I'll just be happy getting my car before the end of the year so it'd be easier to pay for my trip to Ireland for a wedding. While I'm gone I may rent it out, and make a little money back 😉

  22. I reserved the M3 on 4/6/16. Ur estimate has me getting mine in 9/18. As long as my current car, 2001 Camry, holds up, I'll get it. I really hope I can get it sooner. my fear is the US Federal Tax credit may be close to gone by then.

  23. I think Tesla will push for 90k sales by the end of 2017… but they will probably hit a shi*t ton of roadblocks.

  24. Hi Ben! I love your data driven videos, it's so nice to see someone providing opinions based on actual evidence these days. I also would say I think you're estimates are going to be pretty close to what we'll see (fingers crossed!) Anyway, I am a day one Model 3 reservation holder and I plan on getting whatever is available as soon as I am able. Thanks for the videos!

  25. who wants an s when they can get a 3 for half the price? i mean it will still get same milage or more then the s75d likely so it will kill s sales…period

  26. yeah, you're crazy. 😀 I believe Elon who says they're on schedule. I'll wait for my 75D, winter, + + + I'm hoping beginning of Q2 2018.

  27. nice, I love trucks, so I am going to buy my M3 and in five years when Tesla have a Truck, I am going to rent my Model 3 (with Tesla Network), and with the money, I am going to pay the Truck.

  28. I placed 2 pre-orders after spending the night before the unveiling in front of Santa Monica Tesla gallery. I prefer dual motor/AWD, so may defer delivery on one until that is available. Possibly could make the other pre-order available to someone who wants to move up a year or so in line and qualify for the $7,500 tax credit, which I predict will start phasing out July 1 2018, possibly even April 1. Other than dual motor, the other options are unimportant to me, especially the ones which could be software enabled later.

  29. Thanks for the vid, Ben.  Have you heard any reaction from Tesla on the StoreDot battery?  StoreDot has a battery claiming to reach ranges of: 300 mi. and recharge in: 5-minutes.  Look promising but don't know much about it.  All of the innovation around EV's is great but faster charge times and longer range are still the things that will push EV's into the mainstream.

  30. By 2020 I believe that Tesla will have started putting out the first Model Y cars, and Semis, and the pickups won't be far behind. They will be continuing to increase battery and charging capacity with additional Gigafactories, and Superchargers. I think the only existing manufacturer that will be able to change over quick enough to make a line of competitive vehicles is VW/Daimler, but will they be able to make all the batteries those new vehicles need, and will they have to come up with their own charging network or will they bite the bullet and pay Tesla to be part of the Supercharger network?

  31. It will depend on what's available and at what price during the initial release whether I will wait or not. Without knowing for sure the option prices and which ones may be on the original release, those of us on a budget may have no choice but to wait on a less expensive car.

  32. Tesla should offer many different trims. Even if it's quasi overkill of aerodynamics. beautiful car…

  33. I've got my reservation in NZ. I'm picking I'm about 145,347 in the queue which put's me at about Feb 2019 to receive it. I cant imagine what they will have in them by than. Complete self drive etc. I'm envisioning it dropping me to golf than heading home to take my wife somewhere.

  34. My reservation was on 4/2/16. I plan on keeping it. The consideration on wait vs. get as soon as possible will be the situation with tax credits. I don't need them to purchase the car, but I would be a fool to not consider them as part of the purchase decision. There is a risk the the CO tax credit could go away next year ($5k). And there is the very real possibility that Tesla will reach the 200K unit mark in the US in early 2018. I would certainly like to get the full $7500 tax credit.

    So, I will probably not wait too long after I am able to place an order to configure a 3 and get the order placed.

  35. I'm a reservation holder. Can't wait for delivery – but sadly it wont be until 2019 here in Australia.

  36. I'm a M3 RHD reservation holder in the U.K., as I'll be waiting quite a while for my car anyway, do you think that going for all the extra options like AWD will have any effect on my wait time?

  37. I think your prediction is on point. I have decided to wait for all the option come out. I am not in the rush to get it right away.

  38. We're a day one reservation holder. What's described as the 1st out run of Model 3's will suit me fine. I think my wife has higher expectations so we may end up waiting for advanced features. Still I think your predictions are much closer to what will happen versus Elon's.

  39. Many people may be "interested" in buying a Model 3, but too bad the production output is going to be to so small.
    People can't buy what isn't available for purchase.
    Waiting 2+ years for delivery will not be something many will want to deal with.

  40. I find it incredibly amusing when commentators fall into the usual rookie trap of assuming the competition will do nothing. Not here. obviously, because this is a 100% Tesla focussed channel, but in more general EV channels like Transport Evolved, there is news every week of mainstream car manufacturer's roll-out of EVs. The Bolt, Leaf, E Golf, BMW i3 – they're just the start.The Tesla M3 is going to have a very very very hard time at it's median $47,000 price point. And that's assuming (ho ho) there's no calamitous quality fails like on the other models.

  41. I don't really mind if TESLA takes longer to get to our reservation. Just gives me more time to save up to get all the option I hope will be available at that time. I would rather get all the features that make a TESLA a TESLA, rather than getting the bare stripped down model that will be available in the early offerings. But that's me!!

  42. @teslanomic

    Now when Tesla are lunching M3 soon. What about jams at the super charger, is there enough stations for all the cars on the road?

  43. A reservation holder here (no employee, no Tesla owner). From the Netherlands (Europe). Don't know yet which config. By the time deliveries start I suspect more options will be available.

    Main concern is pricing of the options. The base model will cost around $48350 over here, including the 21%VAT (salestax) we have here. Options is a big unknown…and those can raise the price well.

    I think your estimate is quite positive. Nothing but gut feelings here, but I would be pleasantly surprised if Tesla built >50k units this year.

    We'll just have to wait….

    Something going to happen this Sunday…:o

  44. Where is the competition? I have been trying to get Renault and Nissan to contact North Volt to build there Gigafactory for batteries. I would hope that Sweden does more investment in wind and solar so they can get off Nuclear, since I have a problem calling that a fossil free fuel. Germany has announced their factory near Dresden, but they need to clean up their electrical grid. They were stating that they were getting 86% of their electricity from renewable energy, but the actual number is 43%. This isn't bad, they should be commended, but I have a hard time with their lies! I might be wrong but are they going to start production of batteires in 2019, or of their plant? Does anybody know?

  45. Ben, First of all, thanks for your posts and research. It's interesting and helpful. My background, ME, fusion physics, EV's, 43 patents, on and on…………my take:

    Focus more on China, and on any companies launching construction on battery manufacturing plants around the world. Without batteries, you can't build EV's, period. Tesla has a big jump, but not a strangle hold. China is building (from what I've read but don't have solid intel) factories larger than Gigafactory, over 100GWh, right now.

    I think the big boys are playing a measured game. They are waiting for Tesla and others to bear the burden of R&D to reduce battery cost. They already have auto fab lines in place to dwarf Tesla's ability to fab / sell cars. All they need are batteries, and the LG Chem's etc. will no doubt wake up and begin building battery plants as soon as Tesla sales are real. At that point, they could swoop in and take back the market space, crushing Tesla. it's how big companies take over spaces, they buy up the little guys.

    Problem is, consumers don't like first year products (for the most part). They prefer 3rd to 5th year proven products. So when some companies like Ford or Toyota swoop in, 2 to 5 years from now, they will be probably swooping with too little too late. GM and Nissan will probably fair well. Volvo and VW and Porsche will likely to far better with stated goals of "swooping" on the table today.

    Toyota is a likely big short ploy, akin to housing market in The Big Short. The big car companies are going to have a big problem of logistics in 2 years when EV sales take off, and they balance an abrupt drop in ICE demand when buyers realize their next car will be an EV, but, they aren't certain which one to purchase. So, in 2 years, there will be a sudden and unexpected drop in ICE sales……………with the consequence that some ICE companies may go the way of Kodak, belly up overnight due to un planned drop in sales, and their pipeline being glutted with cars no one buys.

    But focus on China. You may not remember but China used to have oceans of commuters on bicycles. Everyone rode a bicycle. Then, they got wealthy enough to purchase a car, with people doing that now, creating the worlds worst traffic jams.

    Then, China supported EV's and electric bicycles, which do NOT get taxed and don't require a license to drive or own or operate. Sales of electric bicycles in China is your BIGGEST story everyone is missing.

    China commuters can get to work across town faster on a bicycle, for cheaper, the way they have for a century and sales of bicycles have skyrocketed as a result. So too have sales of EV's. I think China sells more EV's than the rest of the world combined, but I see little coverage of this. These 2 are I think why China is backing construction of huge battery plants right now.

    So, China is about to become the world leader in EV sales. They can launch their really low cost EV into America and it will seriously compete with current models we can buy.

    That fact, if it's a fact, will be a key reason companies like Toyota, too long focused on fuel cell cars, may collapse when their sales suddenly implode in 2019 to 2020. There won't be enough batteries to go around as the car makers suddenly desire to flip their lines to EV's, but no batteries are available to do it.

    A major factory in Nordic countries (former Tesla directors) some # of GWh capacity will probably mean Volvo will make the switch. So, today, it appears that Volvo, Tesla, and China may be the future key players in auto sales.

    Tesla has the ace up the sleeve with power pack sales, and, 4 more battery factories already in the planning. So, that means, Tesla #1, China #2, and Volvo #3. Though China is capable of taking #1 slot via brute force if they get their design act together.

    Keep up the good work,

    Maybe I'll fire my channel back up!

    rt

  46. Key story: you can't build EV's without batteries. I think Tesla ramp up will be faster than your projection as Gigafactory is successfully ramping up production. making the M3's is less complicated than making 10GWh of batteries, headed toward 10TWh in 5 to 10 years. Currenlty, EV sales are battery constrained. And Tesla needs them for cars and for power packs, with power storage being the far larger existing market. They have a Ligor by the tail, growing both markets at the same time………….Tesla is an energy company, not a car company. They are an Exxon Mobil or BP, not a GM or Ford. Car sales are a $1T to $2T market while energy is a $10T to $20T market cap space.

    E Bikes in China and little E jitney's, bicycles with fairings and no licence costs, all weather capable, watch out.

  47. Tesla should concentrate on work vehicles which makes up a huge market share and is more practical.

  48. The other auto manufacturers seem to be asleep at the wheel. I think they are all in for a world of hurt over the next 5-10 years.

  49. Strangely, the completely predictable effects of exponential growth are invariably underestimated.
    Exponential growth starts slow and is seemingly insignificant. By the time it becomes significant it's on the verge of taking over. Renewable energy is already significant and EVs are not far behind.
    We're on the brink of the end of the fossil fuel age.

  50. Tesla may well build 80,000+ of the Model 3 during 2017, but I believe their Deliveries in the U.S. will be a bit lower. Maybe in the 45,000 to 60,000 unit range. Some cars would be pushed to Q1 2018 here to preserve the Federal EV Tax Credit through mid-2019. Others would be sent to Canada, Mexico, or Left Hand Drive countries in Europe, like Norway.

  51. Thanks for the info, but please get rid of the annoying background noise. I thought it was a bug on the microphone or your neighbor or a car outside…

  52. I will get a Model 3 but will probably wait for the second gen of it..Get some of the bugs out.

  53. sales figures are very different from delivery figures… you are overestimating their production capability.

    and Tesla won't have a good year until they can make a profit. they have yet to do that.

  54. Chevy will sell more Bolts than Tesla will sell Model 3s.

    I'll keep my BMW i3 REX, the most technologically advanced production automobile since the Model T.

  55. I am about 15 miles from the factory and Teslas are already pretty common. With the Model 3 they will as ubiquitous as a Toyotas or BMWs. I have my day 1 pre-order, but will wait until AWD, and HUD are available.

  56. make it fuel cell and under 30k and I'm in. Batteries all eventually degrade. It's annoying in cell phones, but sheer ludicrousy on an expensive item and depreciating item like a car.

  57. well what you either don't know or don't care enough about to explain is the battery Market in China. China has already stated the United States and Europe will no longer be allowed to manufacture and dispose lithium ion batteries in China unless the fee is increased by over 150%.
    see the true impact of hybrid and electric cars has been shipped to China and that fixing to stop. we don't make lithium batteries in China because it's cheaper to manufacture. we make them there because the environmental harm done not processing the heavy metals. up to this point that old saying the solution to pollution is to do it in China has been the EV cars best friend.

  58. My prediction is the model 3 will explode EV sales more then anyone thinks, then tesla will seamlessly build another factory and roll out the Semi Truck, Better Batteries, Model Y, AND do the solar stuff too…

    Tesla is going to be a household name MUCH sooner then people think…

    In Elons life, has he ever settled for "meh i just tried…"
    Tesla will be a, just as big or bigger influential brand than Apple..
    Give it a few years.. Decade tops

  59. lots of use of the word "sustainable" on here, care to explain how 1500lbs of precious (and toxic) heavy metals that only lasts about 10 years and CANNOT be recycled (for the most part) is so sustainable?

  60. First I think it's always important to consider Tesla is a baby when it comes to car manufacturing years. Some companies have literally been around for over 100 years, so I don't think it's fair to hold Tesla up to the same standards as say Ford or GM. With that said, I think they're at a very good pace so far, and also keep in mind they're making cars that drive themselves! No other company is making cars like these (and actually selling them to the public), so that's another reason we should give some more leeway to Tesla. So all in all I think they're doing very well, and if they build another factory or can even get to 20,000 per month like Elon said that would be amazing. I don't own a Tesla yet but I plan on starting a collection one day, so I think my first car will be a used Model S (before they redesigned the nose of the car). The hard one will be getting a Roadster. 😉

  61. I'd say ev sales are terrible at 1 percent. Hopefully they will sell over 100,000 model 3 next year

  62. This sounds like fake news – and is manipulated. Now a days, anybody can become journalist and. Red anchor.

  63. Did you compute this based on the 20k Model 3s per month that Elon tweeted (on Jul 2) they would be up to in Dec 2017, or were you using some other data point?

  64. The Bolt gets 387 miles hypermiling on a single charge. So far the stats show the Model 3 won't even get as many miles on a charge. I doubt the Model 3 will dominate anything except those who like to buy cars based on their Logo's cough LEXUS cough.

  65. YOU should do a video on what EVs are going to do to the price of gas and how much less gas well use over time . there are some cool videos out there about this but you well get alot more non EVs viewer if the tags are right

  66. the Bolt isn't selling….they have slowed the line down and the unsold cars are stacking up…
    seems the dealerships don't want to sell them…because theirs little or no maintenance on a EV
    interesting

  67. In Germany, Teslas Model 3 will disrupt the market for leased company cars, as the Total Cost of Ownership is considerably lower compared to any ICE cars with similar specs. That will deal a heavy blow to the automakers catering to that lease market today. Have Audi, BMW, Daimler, Porsche and Volkswagen realized, what will hit them in about 2 years? Maybe. Have they prepared comparable new cars to launch by that time? Hardly. Plus, Teslas Supercharger network has no rival from any of the German carmakers.

  68. Based on my projected delivery time, which is "late 2018," I'm assuming I won't get my TM3 until September. If that's the case I will not be pushing mine back at all. It's actually kind of perfect for my financial situation that I'd have to wait until that around that time.

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